The Demand for Grid-Supplied Electricity in the Presence of Distributed Solar Energy Resources: Evidence from New York City

Author: Kevin F. Forbes, Ph.D.

Abstract

The increasing utilization of distributed energy resources such as behind-the-meter solar has given rise to a grid-supplied load profile conditional on solar conditions that are difficult to forecast using conventional methods accurately. As a result, the accuracy of the load forecasts is reduced, representing a possible operational challenge to system operators. Using data from the New York City electricity zone, this paper presents a method to resolve this challenge. The analysis presented in this paper demonstrates that the load forecasting challenges associated with behind-the-meter solar can be easily addressed by using time-series methods and better use of meteorological forecasts.

Key Points:

1) Grid-supplied load is increasingly conditional on solar conditions.

2) Load forecasting errors have consequences for resiliency.

3) Solar generation is difficult to forecast using conventional methods accurately.

4) A method is presented to predict grid-supplied load accurately.