Improving the Predictability of Electricity Load in the Presence of Distributed Renewable Energy: The Case of Ireland

Author: Kevin F. Forbes, Ph.D.

Abstract

The increasing utilization of distributed solar and wind  energy resources has given rise to a grid-supplied load profile that is conditional on solar and wind energy conditions that are difficult to forecast using conventional methods accurately. As a result, the accuracy of the load forecasts is reduced, representing a possible operational challenge to system operators. Using data from the island of Ireland, this paper presents a method to resolve this challenge. The analysis presented in this paper demonstrates that the load forecasting challenge associated with DERs is easily addressed by using time-series methods and better use of forecasted information.

Key Points:

1) The increasing utilization of distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind and solar has the potential to reduce the accuracy of the system operator's load forecasts

2) Inaccurate load forecasts may have adverse consequences for the resiliency of the power grid.

3) A method is presented to predict near-real-time grid-supplied load accurately.