Accuracy of wind energy forecasts in Great Britain and prospects for improvement
Authors: Kevin F. Forbes and Ernest M. Zampelli
Abstract
The metric representing the wind energy forecast error, when reported as a percent, is calculated quite differently than the error metrics for electricity transmission, electricity load, or in other industries such as manufacturing when they are also reported as a percent. The resulting calculated metric is quite different from what would be reported if the method utilized elsewhere was employed. This paper examines the possible forecast assessment and operational challenges associated with this finding. Concerning the prospects for improvement, the errors reported in MW of energy have a systematic component. With this insight, we developed a model to improve accuracy.
Key Points:
The trend in the operating challenges in the British power grid is troubling.
One of the root causes of this trend is the inaccuracy of the wind energy forecasts.
The error in the wind energy forecasts in 2019 was 10.17 %, which is far larger than the value one would calculate using the nonstandard methodology highly favored by the wind energy community without adequate justification.
A method is presented to improve short-run forecast accuracy
The published version of the paper is available for download at https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1811071
